Strictly Orthodox Jewish population in the United Kingdom

assessment of the census undercount using an alternative estimation system

Daniel L Staetsky

Strictly Orthodox Jews, otherwise known as haredi, constitute about one quarter of the total Jewish population of the UK. This population is growing quickly due to a peculiar combination of high fertility and low mortality. A religion question, introduced into the Census of England and Wales in 2001, has been used to build estimates of Jewish population and, in combination with geographical information, also estimates of haredi Jewish population. This article claims that haredi Jews have been severely and consistently undercounted in the British Census, with detrimental consequences for proper understanding of the numerical dynamics of British Jewish population and compromised service provision. This paper develops an alternative estimation system that builds on different types of administrative sources - to quantify and correct for census undercount of haredi Jews. The paper proceeds to show that the undercount is not an exclusively 'haredi problem'. Other ethnic and religious groups are likely to be affected by it for broadly similar reasons. It suggests that alternative estimates should be considered for these populations too. Not doing so would lead, at the very least, to compromised service provision.

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