Monday, April 18, 2022

Does climate change affect death rates?


A woman wearing a mask makes her way at a business district during a polluted day in Beijing, China.

By Linda Searing

THE QUESTION Might the effects of a changing climate — such things as warmer summers and colder winters — affect people’s health, specifically mortality rates?

THIS STUDY analyzed Medicare data on 2.7 million New England residents 65 and older, along with temperature data for the Zip codes in which they lived for an eight-year period. Death rates rose as summer temperatures increased or winter temperatures decreased.

For instance, an average summertime increase of 1 degree Celsius (which equals 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) corresponded to about a 1 percent increase in the death rate. When average winter temperatures warmed by that same amount, the death rate fell by just less than 1 percent. Temperature swings within a season also affected the death rate in both summer and winter, with more variable weather resulting in more deaths.

WHO MAY BE AFFECTED? Everyone. Science experts expect average temperatures to rise over time because of the buildup in the atmosphere of greenhouse gases. Precisely how this climate change will affect human health remains a subject of much debate. The study authors noted, however, that “the negative health impacts of climate change may stem from the increase in year-to-year fluctuations of temperature from a level that people have been acclimated to for a long time, or an increase in daily variability within a season, rather than the warmer temperature itself.”

CAVEATS The number of people who died during the study period was not noted, nor was their cause of death. Data analysis did not take into account health-risk factors that may have contributed to their deaths. Whether effects would be similar for people living in regions with different climates or for younger people is unclear.

FIND THIS STUDY July 13 online issue of Nature Climate Change (www.nature.com/nclimate).

LEARN MORE ABOUT climate change and health at www.who.int (search for “climate change and health factsheet”) and www.epa.gov (click on “Impacts of Climate Change” and then “Human Health”).

The research described in Quick Study comes from credible, peer-reviewed journals. Nonetheless, conclusive evidence about a treatment's effectiveness is rarely found in a single study. Anyone considering changing or beginning treatment of any kind should consult with a physician.

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