THE LULL MIGHT END

THE LULL THE LULL MIGHT END — Renu emails Nightly:

When the pandemic first settled into our daily life — when we started to realize that two weeks to flatten the curve was woefully inadequate — many predicted that so much forced home life would also spark a divorce surge.

Nearly two years later, it’s clear that marriages didn’t buckle under the virus. But now, on the cusp of our second pandemic Valentine’s Day, with mask and other mandates lifting, there’s a sense among divorce lawyers that some long-delayed splits are on the way. The Covid lull may end the divorce lull.

“Some speculate there may be, quote unquote, pent up demand,” said Cary Mogerman, a St. Louis-based attorney who is the president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “I will say this: Last month, I’ve seen a lot of new traffic and it’s different than last year at this time.”

The divorce rate has been on the decline for decades, and so far, the pandemic hasn’t disrupted that long-term trend, said Wendy Manning, founder of the Center for Family and Demographic Research at Bowling Green State University. Manning and her team looked at administrative data in 35 states and found that the number of divorces continued going down in 2020. In some states, divorce declined more than it had in previous years.

The pandemic absolutely increased relationship conflict, Manning said. Couples continued to fight over many of the same issues, child care, money, housework, rather than social distancing or masking.

But couples are generally less likely to get divorced during times of economic uncertainty, Mogerman said. In the aftermath of the 2008 recession, he said that his phone didn’t ring for six months.

So the reason that divorces didn’t spike before — the economy and life uncertainty — may also be the reason that they could start to take off this year. Divorce is expensive, moving out can be tricky and court proceedings were delayed by the pandemic.

Even so, Manning isn’t ready to predict a 2022 divorce surge. She believes there are also pandemic-related reasons why fewer couples are splitting up — it’s been harder to have an affair and some families benefited from extra bonding time at home. Marriage rates, as well as divorce rates, are on the decline. Those who are getting married tend to be more educated and wealthier, giving them a better chance of weathering the pandemic with minimal economic disruption.

“There is a lot of media right now about how marriage is the pathway to success in life,” Manning said. But as much as Democrats and Republicans want to support stable families and marriage, there isn’t a readymade policy that can just promote marriage and prevent potential divorce surge, she said. “You can’t just slap marriage on people,” she said.

Still, romantics have at least one reason to take heart this year. Nearly 2.5 million weddings are expected to take place in 2022, according to the Wedding Report, an industry trade group. That’s the most weddings since 1984, which is also around the time that divorce rates started dropping.