Republicans Projected To Take House, Senate Still a Toss-up

With the midterm election a mere 2.5 weeks away and early voting already underway in many states, Republicans are projected to win back the House of Representatives, while the Senate is still a toss-up between the two parties. According to poll averages calculated by Real Clear Politics, Democrats would lose control of the lower chamber of Congress even if they won all 38 toss-up races. Only 176 seats were projected as safe or likely Democrat wins – too few to reach the House majority of 218.

Applying a different approach, polling site Five Thirty Eight assumes that out of 100 different scenarios for the House vote, Republicans would prevail in 75. For the Senate, the website’s model favors a Democratic win, however, giving the party a 61-out-of-100 chance.

According to Real Clear Politics, only one Republican House district is expected to likely flip Democratic: California's 25th, where Raul Ruiz – Democratic incumbent from California's 36th district – is projected to prevail. The Republican incumbent of the district, Mike Garcia, is also moving on to another district in the aftermath of the 2020 Census redistricting.

While CA36 is expected to remain Democratic in its new form, several other Democratic districts are not. Democratic incumbents who face a more Republican electorate due to redistricting include Tom O’Halleran of Arizona’s 2nd District as well as Tom Malinowski of New Jersey’s 7th District and Susan Wildof Pennsylvania’s 7th. The two latter Congresspeople already won by small margins over their opponents in 2020, both of whom are challenging them again. In Tennessee’s 5th District, long-term Democratic Congressman Jim Cooper announced his retirement upon the release of the new district map which skews more Republican. Florida's 13th, the district of former Rep. Charlie Crist, who is challenging Florida governor Ron DeSantis this year, met the same fate. Neither of the Democratic candidates for Cooper’s and Crist’s successor are expected to prevail.

In the Senate, three seats held by Republicans are listed as toss-ups by Real Clear Politics, compared to four seats held by Democrats. The contests in question include Sen. Raphael Warnock highly publicized race against Trump-endorsed Republican Herschel Walker and the reelection bids of Democratic Senators Mark Kelly of Arizona, Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.