Voting on the Economy or on Abortion?

In the upcoming midterms, two topics are vying for the attention of U.S. voters: the all-powerful state of the economy and the likely loss of national abortion protections.

American voters have habitually named the economy as their biggest concern ahead of elections and high inflation currently experienced in the U.S. all but guarantees that economic topics will be front and center in the current election cycle. Yet, as the Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision on overturning Roe v. Wade by October (где-то было написано (не могу найти), что завтра, которое давно прошоло, с неделю уже), the topic of abortion could mobilize voters again, potentially shortly before they head to the polls.

According to a poll by SSRS and CNN, a higher share of Americans agrees with the Democratic Party on abortion as well as women's rights. Yet, the economy remains squarely in the Republicans' territory. In early May, 46 percent of Americans said Republican opinions on the economy were closest to their own views. Only 31 percent said this about Democrats. However, this gap is reversed on abortion. 44 percent of respondents favored the Democrats’ stance, while only 32 percent shared the Republican Party's opinion.

The less-than-beneficial state of the economy could be putting the pressure on Democrats in November as their majority in the Senate is only razor-thin and their hold on the House is only slightly more significant. Close Senate races are expected in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, according to Axios. Reporting by The Cook Political Report shows that 26 House races are rated as toss-ups, out of which 18 districts are currently in the Democrats’ hands and only eight have a Republican incumbent. The picture is similar with leaning districts. Ten districts that the Democrats won in 2020 are merely leaning Democratic now, compared with just one Republican districts in the same position.