Gas Embargo Would Hit Russia Hardest

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies and the Russian military is allegedly starting an invasion of Kyiv amid an unfolding humanitarian crisis, the EU, UK and the U.S. are starting putting in place wide-ranging sanctions. These sanctions range from freezing assets of individuals and banning Russian banks from the United Kingdom and the United States to barring Russian investors from trading in EU bonds. In the energy sector, Germany made headlines by putting the certification process of Nord Stream 2 on ice after Russia's aggression. As our chart shows, these types of embargoes would impact the country's economic power the most.

According to simulations by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Russia's gross domestic product would drop by almost three percent if all imports and exports of gas would come to a halt. In 2020 alone, Russia produced roughly 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas, an amount second only to the United States. Roughly one third or 197 billion cubic meters of this production is exported by the country, which makes it the top exporter of this resource by a wide margin. It's also the third-biggest crude oil producer in the world, which explains the 1.2 percent drop in GDP if a total stop of imports and exports of this resource would be enacted.

Even though gas export stops, in particular, would influence energy prices in the EU in the short term, IfW researchers are confident that the repercussions for the Western world would be minimal in the long run. "Our calculations are exemplary in nature, but they clearly show that the medium-term economic consequences of trade embargoes would hit Russia much harder than the Western allies," said Hendrik Mahlkow, a trade researcher at IfW Kiel.