World Economic League Table 2021

Выбраны вхождения Russia из WORLD ECONOMICLEAGUE TABLE 2021 A world economic league table with forecasts for 193 countries to 2035 December 2020, 12th edition,то-есть, из экономического прогноза (сам прогноз, дамаю, лехко гуглицо — поэтому без ссылки)

Introduction

China is the world’s most populous country with a population now estimated at 1,439.3 million in2020, 18.5%of the world’s population. It is also the second-largest economy in the world and its share of the world economy has risen from 3.6%in 2000 to 17.8%in 2020. During this time China has moved from being a poor country to being an upper-middle-income economy with GDP per capita in 2019 of $10,839 at IMF PPP values, above countries like Malaysia and Russia.

Romania's security situation will likely benefit from US President-Elect Biden’s commitment to NATO collective defense. On the other side of the coin, a more assertive US policy towards Russia could also produce renewed geopolitical tension in the Black Sea area. Although it is unlikely, Russian intervention in south-eastern Ukraine or the Republic of Moldova could even pull Romania into a regional conflict. While the country has been investing in new defense capabilities over recent years, its vulnerability to regional security risks remains.

Russia had a PPP adjusted GDP per capita of $9,972 in 2020, making it an upper-middle-income country, though slightly poorer than Malaysia or China. With a population of 145.9 million, it is the most populous country in Europe. By landmass, however, it is by far the world’s largest country covering 11%of the world’s landmass, not far short of twice as large as China, the second-largest, which only covers 6.3%

Russia’s GDP is estimated to have fallen 5%in 2020 as a result of coronavirus. It was however one of the early countries to produce a vaccine and appears to have started to recover. 

Russia has an essentially healthy public finance position with a public debt of only 13.7% of GDP. In normal years the government runs a fiscal surplus driven by oil and commodity revenues. 

Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer. Mineral fuels account for 61.6% of Russian exports and the projected weakness of prices for fossil fuels will affect Russia’s economic prospects. But these will be helped by two factors –the Nordstream 2gas pipeline selling natural gas to Germany in particular and other parts of Northern Europe and the gradual development of Siberian oil, probably the largest such resource in the world. Russia is also a major commodity producer and is affected by the likely growth in trading links with the burgeoning Chinese economy, helped by the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. 

Less well known, and almost certainly not fully covered by the statistics, Russia also has a huge strength in its IT sector, particularly producing contract software. A recent study by the Oxford Internet Institute identified three-quarters of a million Russian enterprises who had sold software to the UK alone during 2018. One suspects that much of this is not included in the GDP figures. 

The latest World Ease of Doing Business study shows Russia in 28th place, one place above Japan. 

The World Economic Forum’s index of competitiveness shows Russia in 43rd place, while the equivalent survey by IMD shows Russia in 2020 in 50th place, down 5 places in the year. 

The PISA student performance indicators have generally showed Russia improving its position, especially in maths and sciences although performance in the latest survey has not been so good.

We expect the trend rate of growth for Russia to be 2.2% annually from 2021-25 and 1.9% annually from 2026-30 and 1.9% annually from 2031-35. 

But a rising real exchange rate is predicted to bring Russia up in the rankings from 2026-35, rising to 10th place in the league table, overtaking countries Canada, Italy, Korea, and being overtaken by Indonesia.

The improvement in Russia’s economic performance was foreshadowed in the book ‘Driving the Silk Road’ written by Cebr founder and Deputy Chairman which describes his adventures driving a Bentley in a car rally from Beijing to Paris, mainly across Russia.

Saudi Arabia used to be the world’s top oil producer but shale oil production in the US has left it far behind, contesting second place with Russia. With fossil fuels likely to be used less in the future, the task is to diversify –in 2018 42% of GDP was from the oil sector.

Before the global disruptions caused by the pandemic, economic growth was supported by robust FDI inflows from the EuropeanUnion, of which it hopes to become a member, as well as from Russia, Switzerland, and China. While the country [Сербия] continues to push for the continuation of the EU accession process, this year it has also strengthened its links to other global powers, most notably China. This was most evident in the highly publicized pandemic assistance provided by China in the country, but also extends to other areas such as investment in key infrastructure. 

As for Turkey’s mid-to-long-term economic outlook, foreign policy will likely play a considerable role. Joe Biden’s rise to the White House will mean the replacement of an ally in President Trump, bringing with it the greater likelihood of sanction imposition in relation to Turkey’s activity within the Russian defense industry. Greater denouncement and questioning of Turkey’s democratic and human rights record may also bring heightened hostility from the international community, with potential economic consequences in relation to trade and investment. Such factors will also play a role in Turkey’s potential accession to the European Union, though negotiations on this matter have been on hold since 2019. 

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