Death rates estimation from LEX

The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy

by Marius D. Pascariu 1,2,*, Ugofilippo Basellini 3,4, José Manuel Aburto 2,3,5 and Vladimir Canudas-Romo 6,* 

1 Biometric Risk Modelling Chapter, SCOR Global Life SE, 75795 Paris, France
2 Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, 5000 Odense, Denmark
3 Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), 18057 Rostock, Germany
4 Institut National D’études Démographiques (INED), 93300 Aubervilliers, France
5 Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Department of Sociology and Nuffield College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK
6 School of Demography, The Australian National University, Canberra 2600, Australia

Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Risks 2020, 8(4), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks8040109 (registering DOI)
Received: 27 July 2020 / Revised: 11 October 2020 / Accepted: 14 October 2020 / Published: 20 October 2020  (This article belongs to the Special Issue Mortality Forecasting and Applications)

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Abstract

The prediction of human longevity levels in the future by direct forecasting of life expectancy offers numerous advantages, compared to methods based on extrapolation of age-specific death rates. However, the reconstruction of accurate life tables starting from a given level of life expectancy at birth, or any other age, is not straightforward. Model life tables have been extensively used for estimating age patterns of mortality in poor-data countries. We propose a new model inspired by indirect estimation techniques applied in demography, which can be used to estimate full life tables at any point in time, based on a given value of life expectancy at birth. Our model relies on the existing high correlations between levels of life expectancy and death rates across ages. The methods presented in this paper are implemented in a publicly available R package. 
Keywords: indirect estimation; life expectancy; forecasting; death rates; age patterns of mortality ▼ Show Figures



This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Pascariu, M.D.; Basellini, U.; Aburto, J.M.; Canudas-Romo, V. The Linear Link: Deriving Age-Specific Death Rates from Life Expectancy. Risks 2020, 8, 109.