How will Putin's reign end?

Updated August 14
Dima Vorobiov, Former Propaganda Executive at Russia

If President Putin decides to keep power for life after our next Presidential elections (2024), he enters the precarious realm of Continuismo. This is the practice by autocratic incumbents of keeping themselves in office beyond the legal term existing at the time of their ascent to power.

The authors of the book The Politics of Presidential Term Limits. Baturo A., Elgie R. (editors). New York: Oxford University Press, 2019 compiled the outcomes of 53 Continuismo practitioners globally between 1945 and 2017. Based on these precedents, the probability of different outcomes of Putin’s rule is distributed the following way:

1. 42% he will be kicked out in a coup. (Over the last 100 years, this happened to two of our rulers.)
2. 23% he dies in the Kremlin. (Over the last 100 years, this happened to five of our rulers.)
3. 17% he steps down giving the ultimate power to some crown prince,Yeltsin style. (1 ruler).
4. 15% he’ll be killed. (Beria, plus the possible poisoning of Stalin).
5. 4% he declares an election that he loses. (Never happened in our history).

в настоящее время это третий ответ, в других много эмоций