By A. Aassve 1,2, N. Cavalli 2,3,4, L. Mencarini 2,5, S. Plach 2, M. Livi Bacci 6,7
1 Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milano, 20136 Italy.
2 Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milano, 20136 Italy.
3 Nuffield College, University of Oxford, 1 New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK.
4 Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, 42 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, UK.
5 Department of Management and Technology, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milan, 20136 Italy.
6 Scuola di Scienze Politiche ‘Cesare Alfieri’, Università di Firenze, Via delle Pandette 32, Florence 50127, Italy.
7 Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni ‘Giuseppe Parenti’, Università di Firenze, Viale Morgagni 59, Florence 50134, Italy.
Email: arnstein.aassve@unibocconi.it
Science 24 Jul 2020: Vol. 369, Issue 6502, pp. 370-371 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9520
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have consequences for human populations. Worldwide, mortality levels are certainly affected. The worst-hit northern Italian provinces recorded losses of period life expectancy of 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women, the largest decline in life expectancy since the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic and World War II (1). Similar patterns follow in other countries (2). With the focus firmly on deaths, the scientific debate risks overlooking that population dynamics are also shaped by fertility trajectories. Throughout history, spikes in mortality owing to events such as wars, famines, and pandemics were followed by changes in fertility, resulting in fewer births in the short term and by recuperation in subsequent years (3). Economic and social change triggered by a pandemic is also likely to influence childbearing intentions and completed fertility. How the COVID-19 pandemic will affect fertility has implications for the rate of population aging, shaping future health challenges and economic growth potential across the globe.
There are frequent claims that the ongoing pandemic will result in a “baby boom.” Couples, it is argued, spend more time with each other and, as such, they are more likely to procreate. The empirical evidence for this is sparse. Instead, recent studies focusing on the short-term fertility consequences of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, find that peaks in mortality are generally followed by birth troughs within a year; whereas studies focusing on a longer time frame, from 1 to 5 years following the event, have unveiled patterns of increasing fertility (4). Drivers of these medium-term rebounds are the desire of parents to replace lost children, as well as structural shifts in expectations on the survival probability of offspring. In the wake of unexpected mortality shocks, fertility may also take on a symbolic meaning, as new births become a positive reframing mechanism, signaling a return to normality.
A relationship between excess influenza deaths and a 9-month lagged depression in births was observed by Jacques Bertillon in seminal studies on the impact of the 1889 influenza outbreak on the population of France (5). This relationship was further explored in the context of the largest pandemic of the last century, the 1918–1919 H1N1 influenza A pandemic (the so-called “Spanish flu”). In the United States, it caused a 13% drop in birth rates from 1918 to 1919 (6). Channels for adverse fertility effects include the increased mortality and morbidity of adults in reproductive age; higher frequency of maternal mortality and stillbirths; and slowdowns in conceptions, owing to fear of infections and decreased social mixing. As for subsequent positive fertility effects, the literature disagrees on whether the baby boom that followed in 1920 should be attributed to the direct effects of the pandemic or to the end of World War I, or to a mix of both. Peace led to a recuperation of postponed marriages and childbearing after couples reunited, as well as remarriage of war widows (7, 8).
1 Department of Social and Political Sciences, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milano, 20136 Italy.
2 Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milano, 20136 Italy.
3 Nuffield College, University of Oxford, 1 New Road, Oxford, OX1 1NF, UK.
4 Department of Sociology, University of Oxford, 42 Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1JD, UK.
5 Department of Management and Technology, Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Via Guglielmo Röntgen 1, Milan, 20136 Italy.
6 Scuola di Scienze Politiche ‘Cesare Alfieri’, Università di Firenze, Via delle Pandette 32, Florence 50127, Italy.
7 Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni ‘Giuseppe Parenti’, Università di Firenze, Viale Morgagni 59, Florence 50134, Italy.
Email: arnstein.aassve@unibocconi.it
Science 24 Jul 2020: Vol. 369, Issue 6502, pp. 370-371 DOI: 10.1126/science.abc9520
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic will have consequences for human populations. Worldwide, mortality levels are certainly affected. The worst-hit northern Italian provinces recorded losses of period life expectancy of 2 to 3.5 years for men and 1.1. to 2.5 years for women, the largest decline in life expectancy since the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic and World War II (1). Similar patterns follow in other countries (2). With the focus firmly on deaths, the scientific debate risks overlooking that population dynamics are also shaped by fertility trajectories. Throughout history, spikes in mortality owing to events such as wars, famines, and pandemics were followed by changes in fertility, resulting in fewer births in the short term and by recuperation in subsequent years (3). Economic and social change triggered by a pandemic is also likely to influence childbearing intentions and completed fertility. How the COVID-19 pandemic will affect fertility has implications for the rate of population aging, shaping future health challenges and economic growth potential across the globe.
There are frequent claims that the ongoing pandemic will result in a “baby boom.” Couples, it is argued, spend more time with each other and, as such, they are more likely to procreate. The empirical evidence for this is sparse. Instead, recent studies focusing on the short-term fertility consequences of natural disasters, such as earthquakes and hurricanes, find that peaks in mortality are generally followed by birth troughs within a year; whereas studies focusing on a longer time frame, from 1 to 5 years following the event, have unveiled patterns of increasing fertility (4). Drivers of these medium-term rebounds are the desire of parents to replace lost children, as well as structural shifts in expectations on the survival probability of offspring. In the wake of unexpected mortality shocks, fertility may also take on a symbolic meaning, as new births become a positive reframing mechanism, signaling a return to normality.
A relationship between excess influenza deaths and a 9-month lagged depression in births was observed by Jacques Bertillon in seminal studies on the impact of the 1889 influenza outbreak on the population of France (5). This relationship was further explored in the context of the largest pandemic of the last century, the 1918–1919 H1N1 influenza A pandemic (the so-called “Spanish flu”). In the United States, it caused a 13% drop in birth rates from 1918 to 1919 (6). Channels for adverse fertility effects include the increased mortality and morbidity of adults in reproductive age; higher frequency of maternal mortality and stillbirths; and slowdowns in conceptions, owing to fear of infections and decreased social mixing. As for subsequent positive fertility effects, the literature disagrees on whether the baby boom that followed in 1920 should be attributed to the direct effects of the pandemic or to the end of World War I, or to a mix of both. Peace led to a recuperation of postponed marriages and childbearing after couples reunited, as well as remarriage of war widows (7, 8).
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