Saturday, July 18, 2020

sub-Saharan Africa might exceed its projected population size

ланцет
Why sub-Saharan Africa might exceed its projected population size by 2100

Alex EzehFrances KisslingPeter Singer
Open Access Published:July 14, 2020 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31522-1

как кажется, медики точно не понимают (им простительно, ибо они этого в школе не проходят, а надо бы), что такое population projection, но и часть демографов тоже

Christopher Murray and colleagues [ссылка на сопсно прогноз Мурэя и кампании] at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) report their new models of future global, regional, and national population scenarios as a function of fertility, migration, and mortality rates for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100.

придётся читать оргинал, а не хотелось
с аналогичной критикой "Почему всем собирать коубнику в Южной Корее" уже выступал Д. Коулмен, тогда была идея "substition migration", теперь SDG

2 comments:

Ba.ldei.aga said...

некоторое критичное замечание, думаю, вообще публикация — лажа
https://twitter.com/stuartbasten/status/1283668405900374016

Ba.ldei.aga said...

Related to

The UCL–Lancet Commission on Migration and Health: the health of a world on the move
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32114-7/fulltext

Lancet Migration: global collaboration to advance migration health
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30107-0/fulltext

txt itself
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email#sec1
Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study