Forecasts of Total Deaths

Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 20, 2020.

Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts

• This week CDC received 26 individual national forecasts.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts there will likely be between 160,000 and 175,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 15th.
• National and state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next 4 weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last 4 weeks for the US overall, as well as in 25 states and 1 territory. The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Nevada, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah.

• The figure shows cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths and forecasted deaths for the next four weeks in the United States.
• Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.

со списком прогонозистов полезно познакомиться (линька в самом начале)

о влиянии возобновления занятий