Если говорить по-русьге:"A demographer makes a projection, and his reader uses it as a forecast; does the demographer's intention or the reader's use determine whether projection or forecasting has occurred?" (Keyfitz, 1972) 🤔#ishoudlbewriting— Dilek Yildiz (@dil_yildiz) April 29, 2019
фсё едино — прогнозирование, но тут-то собака и порылась — от греч. πρόγνωση «предвидение, предсказание»
это научно обоснованное суждение о возможных состояниях объекта в будущем и (или) об альтернативных путях и сроках их осуществления. В узком смысле, это вероятностное суждение о будущем состоянии объекта исследования.
Прогнози́рование — это разработка прогноза; в узком значении — специальное научное исследование конкретных перспектив дальнейшего развития какого-либо процесса.
Если кто понял апчомспич — свисните, пож
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CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 Introduction: Population Without Age
1 Definitions of Rate of Increase
1.1 Doubling Time and Half-life The Period of Compounding. Application to Human History. Logarithms to Various Bases. Prospective Possible Doublings
1.2 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers
1.3 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth?
1.4 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of Increase An Arithmetic Example for Two Subpopulations
1.5 Rate of Increase Changing Over Time Special Cases of Changing Rates
1.6 Logistic Increase and Explosion
1.7 The Stalled Demographic Transition
1.8 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic Transition
1.9 Matrices and Graphs in Demography A Two-Subgroup Model. Irreducibility or Connectivity. Primitivity. Application to Birth and Death
CHAPTER 2 The Life Table
2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions Mortality the Same for All Ages
2.2 Life Tables Based on Data Assuming Constant Probability of Dying Within the Age Interval. The Basic Equation and a Conventional Solution. A Precise Life Table Contents Without Iteration or Graduation. Greville and Reed-Merrell Methods Derived as Special Cases. Bounds on Error
2.3 Further Small Corrections Measure of Exposure
2.4 Period and Cohort Tables
2.5 Financial Calculations Single-Payment Annuity and Insurance. Annual Premiums and Reserves
2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement Dependence of Causes of Death. Method of Calculation. Multiple Decrement
2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in Demography
CHAPTER 3 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio Variation by Age in the Sex Ratio of Mortality
3.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers Weighted Index of Male to Female Mortality. Aggregative Indices Versus Averages of Relatives
3.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships?
3.3 Effect on e of Change in fj.(x) A Proportional Difference Uniform at All Ages. Observed Values of the Constant H. An Aspect of the Index Number Problem. Fractional Change in Mortality Due to a Given Cause. Comparison of H(l) with Interrelations of the Several Causes.
3.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely Average Expectation of Life. Oldest Person in Group. Effect of a Health Improvement
CHAPTER 4 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility: The Uses of Stable Theory
4.1 Stable Theory A Discrete Form
4.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census Effect of Choice of Model Life Table. Theory for the Error Arising from Use of an Improper Life Table
4.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population Demographic Calculations Need Not Start at Age Zero. Use of Popula- tion Mean AgeContents
4.4 Rate of Increase Estimated from the Fraction Under Age
4.5 Birth Rate as Well as Rate of Increase Estimated for a Stable Population
4.6 Comparison of the Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution Incomplete Population and Deaths. Estimates from Two Censuses
4.7 Sensitivity Analysis Mean Age as a Function of Rate of Increase. Pension Cost. Fraction of Old People
4.8 The Degree to Which Promotion Within Organizations Depends on Population Increase 107 A Simplification. The Chain Letter Principle
CHAPTER 5 Birth and the Intrinsic Rate of Natural Increase
5.1 The Characteristic Equation Why Stress the Female Model? An Iterative Method for Calculating r. The Intrinsic Rate for Various Kinds of Data. Male Period Intrinsic Rates. Cohort Intrinsic Rate. Intrinsic Rate for One Family
5.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation
5.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate How the Intrinsic Rate Varies with the Moments. Change in Births at One Age
5.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline Effect of Small Arbitrary Change in Birth Function. Amount of Change Needed for Drop to Bare Replacement. Effect of Uniformly Lower Death Rates
5.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths The Drop in Fertility That Would Offset a Drop in Mortality to Zero. Diseases of Infancy Versus Heart Disease: Their Effects on Population Increase
5.6 Moments of the Dying Population in Terms of Those of the Living, and Conversely Expectation of Life as a Function of Crude Birth and Death Rates
5.7 Four Mathematical Formulations of the Basic Equation of Population The Lotka Integral Equation. The Leslie Matrix. The Difference Equation. The von Foerster Partial Differential Equations. The Four Presentationsxvi Contents
CHAPTER 6 Reproductive Value, with Applications to Migration, Contraception, and Zero Population Growth
6.1 Concept of Reproductive Value Reproductive Value from the Lotka Integral Equation. One Woman Aged x. Stable Age Distribution. Arbitrary Age Distribution. Numerical Calculation
6.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-migration Occurring in a Given Year
6.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization
6.4 Large Change in Regime
6.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year
6.6 The Momentum of Population Growth
6.7 Eliminating Heart Disease Would Make Very Little Difference to Population Increase, Whereas Eradication of Malaria Makes a Great Deal of Difference
Appendix: Reproductive Value as a Contribution to Future Births
CHAPTER 7 Understanding Population Characteristics
7.1 Accounting for Age Distribution Young and Old Populations. Age Distribution as a Function of Rate of Increase. Neutral and Nonneutral Change in Mortality. Accounting for Observed Ages. Are Birth or Death Rates the Major Influence on Age Distribution?
7.2 Why There Are More Women Than Men at Older Ages in Modern Populations
7.3 The Stable Equivalent Population Projection and the Stable Approximation Thereto. Ap. Seller Inventory
Демографический прогноз — научно обоснованное предвидение основных параметров движения населения и будущей демографической ситуации.
Демографическому прогнозу необходима многовариантность:
средний (наиболее вероятный ход событий)
нижний и верхний (внешние границы динамики показателей)
Точность демографического прогноза зависит от точности исходной информации, обоснованности гипотез о тенденциях изменения показателей и длительности прогнозного периода.
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%94%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%BE%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9_%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B7
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