Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related SDGs

Added value of this study

GBD 2017 provides consistent, comparably generated estimates of the health-related SDG indicators for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Additionally, GBD 2017 provides, for the first time, estimates of health-related SDGs at the subnational level for select countries and by sex. Newly estimated indicators in GBD 2017 include health worker density per 1000 population (SDG indicator 3.c.1), sexual violence by non-intimate partners (SDG indicator 5.2.2), and population census status (SDG indicator 17.19.2a), as well as disaggregation of SDG indicator 16.1.3 into prevalence of physical violence (SDG indicator 16.1.3a) and sexual violence (SDG indicator 16.1.3c) following the March, 2018, refinements accepted by the UN Statistical Commission. Measurement improvements included reporting on prevalence of current smoking rather than of daily smoking to better align with the UN’s definition and internally consistent, systematic estimation of adolescent birth rates within the broader GBD study. We used a forecasting platform that systematically captures the effects of independent drivers of population health into the future to generate projections through 2030. On the basis of past trends, we assessed country-level probabilities of attainment for SDG indicators with defined targets. We also calculated the rates of change required to meet defined SDG targets at the global level from 2015 to 2030, and then compared them to annualised rates of change observed at the country level from 1990 to 2015; this analysis provided a way of benchmarking the pace of progress needed to meet ambitious SDG aims with what the world has achieved in the past. We then applied the mean percentile of the global required rates of change to all SDG indicators, providing a historically grounded foundation to evaluate progress for indicators without explicit targets and the relative feasibility of current ones.

кортинко в оригинале палутшэ, канешна
Deciles are based on the distribution of health-related SDG indices for countries and territories in 2017.

ссылка на рисёчгейт:

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017