Trump and the Second Demographic Transition

The Two Dimensions of American Household and Family Demography and the Presidential Elections, 1968 -2016

An Analysis of Spatial Patterns.

Shows the remarkable convergence of the spatial patterns of the US presidential elections and the "Second Demographic Transition (SDT)" characteristics of households. This convergence holds both at levels of States and counties, and stabilizes after 1996. The "pattern of disadvantage" (POD) characteristics of households are unrelated to these elections outcomes. This illustrates the continued strength of the "culture war" dimension in US presidential elections. The relationship is largely robust for various controls (income, education, religious and racial composition, immigration), and does not depend on the main issues dominating the debates.

Second Demographic Transition  ( SDT )

1. postponement of Marriage
2. Postponement of Fertility
3. Acceptability of Abortion
4. Presence cohabiting partners
5. Same sex households

Pattern of Disadvantage  ( POD )

1. Children living with grandparents
2. Single mother households
3. Teenage fertility
4. Out of wedlock fertility
5. Divorce