The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth

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The Impact of Migration on UK Population Growth:

• More than half (53%) of the increase of the UK population between 1991 and 2014 was due to the direct contribution of net migration
• Differences in net migration assumptions between the ‘low migration’ and the ‘high migration’ variant projections produce a range of variation of 5 million in the projected size of the UK population in 2039 (between 71.8 and 76.8 million).
• In the principal projection the cumulative net inflow of post-2014 migrants accounts for half (51%) of total population growth until 2039. A further 17% of projected population growth is attributable to the additional contribution of new migrants to natural change (i.e. births and deaths). 
• The projected contribution of net migration to population change considerably differs across the four UK constituent nations. Without net immigration Scotland’s population would stagnate over the next decade and would decrease in the longer term.
• Net migration assumptions have been continually revised in the projections released since the mid-1990s, reflecting rising levels of net migration and the high uncertainty of migration forecasting. As a result, the projected size of the UK population at the beginning of the 2030s based on the latest projections is 11 million higher than in the 1994-based projections.