Sunday, February 22, 2015

End of Malthusian trap

Размышлизмы Генштаба чото задели за жывое :(

Kenny: End of Malthusian trap - people not getting poorer from Future Studies on Vimeo.

I think we have seen the end of the Malthusian trap in Africa as described by Malthus. So Malthus basically said: 'There is so much land to go around, there is so much that you can produce on a given amount of land, and land is the vital factor of production. And so if you have more people on the same land, they are going to get poorer and their health will get worse until they start dying off and then the number of people will go back down to where it was.' Well, if you look at what's happened in Africa over the last sixty years, there hasn't been enough income growth, there are still a lot of people living on 1,25 dollar a day or less, which is, you know, absolute poverty. Having said that, only very small parts of Africa we have actually seen incomes go down. In most places they are going up, and as I say in the last ten years even more are going up. More to the point: Populations have doubled or tripled, I don't have the number off the top of my head, but populations have expanded hugely. So Malthus would have said: 'If populations expand that much, everywhere would be getting much, much, much poorer', and that hasn't happened. Actually, economies in Africa are expanding very rapidly. More rapidly than European economies. It's just that populations have been going up as well. So those growing economies have had to feed more people, if you will. But certainly we don't see land as being just a constraint to output in Africa. Output in Africa has been growing and growing and growing. And now that population growth rates are falling in Africa, my hope is that we will see not only there being no evidence of the Malthusian trap, but also continued output growth being shared amongst a slowly growing population, which means everybody is going to get richer. And as I say in the last ten years we have started seeing that in Africa, and I hope it's a trend that continues. [если коротко: никакой ловушки нет]

типичный пример настаивания на милой сердцу конспирологии в обмен на занудного кепа очевидность

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